The power battery of the hottest new energy vehicl

2022-08-01
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The power battery of new energy vehicles must pass the "cost barrier"

Abstract: in the future, the new energy vehicle industry must be combined with renewable energy. From the perspective of electricity, to develop renewable energy, it is necessary to make preparations for energy storage

in recent years, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have shown explosive growth. The surge in sales of electric vehicles has driven the rapid development of the power battery industry and the strong demand for lithium resources, and has brought development opportunities to the entire upstream and downstream industry chain

at present, how to develop the lithium battery industry, cultivate lithium resource, material and power battery enterprises with world competitiveness, realize the coordinated development of the whole industry chain, and establish a good industrial ecology to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the electric vehicle industry. At this forum, experts, scholars and entrepreneurs from the industry discussed the above issues

lithium battery market demand growth

as an emerging industry, the development of new energy vehicles led by pure electric vehicles attracts people's attention at every step

from the dark horse that entered the market with the mentality of testing the water a few years ago, it has become the fastest growing product in the domestic automobile market. New energy vehicles have been favored by many consumers

it is hard to imagine that the annual sales volume of new energy vehicles has grown from less than 5000 to 510000, and the ownership has increased from 10000 to 1million in less than 5 years

driven by the rapid development of new energy automobile industry, the demand for power batteries continues to increase. According to the official information of China electric vehicle 100 people's Association, the total domestic demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles in the first quarter of this year was 1.27gwh, of which about 0.97gwh was used for electric vehicles, accounting for 76% of the total

with the continuous growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles, the market demand for lithium batteries will also continue to expand

under the influence of factors such as the gradual deepening of technology research and development and the increasingly fierce market competition, the type of power battery has been gradually established

in recent years, the technological development of power batteries in China has been clearly seen: "the Tenth Five Year Plan" is lithium manganate batteries, "the Eleventh Five Year Plan" is lithium iron phosphate batteries, "the Twelfth Five Year Plan" is ternary batteries, and the next five years will be a new generation of lithium-ion power batteries with high specific energy

a few years ago, the range of mainstream pure electric vehicles in the market was generally within 200 km, and few models exceeded 300 km. With the progress in the "pure electric drive" power system integration technology, the average driving range of mainstream passenger cars now entering the conventional household has increased to more than 300 kilometers

it is noted that the major new energy models listed this year, including SAIC Roewe rx5ev, BAIC new energy ex300l, song EV, baowo bx5ev and many other models, have performed well in terms of mileage. In addition, the overall technical level of pure electric commercial vehicles is in a leading position in the world, and they are exported in batches

"the power battery industry has made major breakthroughs. In 2015, there were four Chinese enterprises among the top ten enterprises in the world, and this number increased to six last year, which reflects the continuous improvement of the development level of China's power battery industry." Ouyangminggao, executive vice president of China Electric Vehicle Association, said

at the same time, the improvement of power battery level has also driven the development of the whole hybrid technology to a certain extent. At present, major automobile manufacturers have relatively formed hybrid models, especially BYD, SAIC Roewe and other enterprises have launched plug-in hybrid models on a large scale

according to the power battery carried, the existing battery technology route of new energy bus has been basically determined due to the influence of the policy. Lithium iron phosphate battery occupies an absolute advantage in the field of pure electric bus, and ternary battery occupies a dominant position in the field of pure electric passenger car

at the same time, with the improvement of battery technology and mass production, the specific energy of lithium-ion power battery system is increasing year by year, but the cost is decreasing year by year

"the specific energy of power batteries has nearly doubled in the past five years, and the cost is expected to drop to 1 yuan/watt hour by 2020. Moreover, China has made significant progress in the safety of power batteries in recent years." Ouyangminggao said that relevant domestic technologies have reached a leading level in the world. For example, the expansion, testing, modeling and prediction of thermal runaway of series batteries were first developed by Chinese enterprises

industry breakthrough must pass the "cost barrier"

power battery is the core component and power source of new energy vehicles and occupies an important position in the new energy vehicle industry chain

affected by this factor, it will also stimulate the investment enthusiasm of the whole society in this field. In addition, SMC process will bring more efficient production process and minimum material waste

the Research Report on the problems and suggestions faced by the development of China's automotive lithium battery industry released by the China electric vehicle 100 people's Association this year shows that only in the first half of 2016, 54 enterprises released a total investment and expansion plan of 116billion yuan, which is higher than the power battery link plan of 2015

however, after the implementation of China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy, the problem of excess capacity of lithium batteries gradually emerged

since the beginning of this year, due to the decline of subsidies, new energy vehicles have experienced a cliff like decline rarely seen in recent years. Although this figure has been eased to some extent with the publication of the subsidy catalogue, it took five months this year to barely break the 100000 vehicle mark

under such a background, it is inevitable that there will be overcapacity in lithium batteries

according to statistics, at the end of 2015, the capacity of main power batteries exceeded 30gwh. At present, it is planned to build more than 70gwh. It is expected that the capacity will exceed 100GWh in 2018

at the same time, the market concentration of lithium batteries has further improved. In 2015, the market share of the top 10 power battery companies in China reached 75.3%, and the market share is concentrated in the hands of a few companies

"at present, the overall capacity of lithium battery enterprises may have exceeded the needs of the current market. Even so, the really good battery enterprise products are still in short supply." Wuzhixin, deputy director of China Automotive Technology Research Center, believes that the current overcapacity is a structural surplus, which may be solved for the rapidly developing new energy vehicle industry without the advantages of light quality and low price of building plastics

at this stage, the main reason why new energy vehicles rely too heavily on policies is that new energy vehicles generally have high prices. Even after enjoying the dual subsidies of the state and local governments, their terminal prices are higher than those of traditional fuel vehicles. How to control the cost of power batteries so that they can enter the homes of ordinary people has become the key to the competition in the lithium battery industry

it is reported that, taking raw materials as an example, the cost of lithium carbonate has been as low as 13000 yuan/ton, but the market price has exceeded 150000 yuan/ton. Ouyangminggao bluntly said that if the price could be reduced to 30000-50000 yuan, the problem of raw material cost would be basically solved, which is a very important link to solve the problem of high cost of new energy vehicles

wuzhixin said that in the future competition in the new energy automobile industry, the power battery is the top priority. As for the most critical lithium resource in power batteries, if it can be effectively utilized for us, we will control the core field of power battery industry, thus grasping the lifeblood of electric vehicles, so that "lithium" can travel all over the world

green development mode helps low-carbon

"power batteries often contain a lot of rare cobalt resources, and these resources basically depend on imported supply. The domestic market must pay attention to the problem of material recovery and recycling." Ouyang Minggao said when talking about the necessity of power battery recycling

in fact, half of the cost of new energy vehicles comes from power batteries. It can be said that reducing the cost of power battery is a "good way" to solve the high cost of new energy vehicles

ouyangminggao made an account for us: according to the equivalence between the internal combustion engine power system and the battery power system, the battery is about $100 (680 yuan)/kWh, which can be completely equivalent to the traditional internal combustion engine power. In other words, under such conditions, the price of new energy vehicles can be basically the same as that of traditional fuel vehicles

now that the goal has been set, the completion time node has become the focus of attention

it is learned that the average price per kilowatt hour of the global battery system can reach 1000 yuan in 2020, and it is possible to reach 100 euros (760 yuan) abroad in 2020. In fact, the requirements of the domestic industry are higher than them, which is also the next step for the overall new energy industry

from a long-term perspective, the electrification of power system also needs to be combined with low-carbon energy. At present, due to the source of electric energy, electric vehicles can not be completely said to be "high carbon" or "low carbon". The key question is where the electric power of electric vehicles comes from. To achieve low-carbon, electric vehicles must be combined with low-carbon energy, which can not only achieve near zero emissions, but also achieve the highest efficiency. If it is completely generated from coal electricity, it is basically equivalent to the internal combustion engine hybrid power

in the future, the new energy vehicle industry must be combined with renewable energy. From the perspective of electricity, in order to develop renewable energy, it is more important to do a good job in energy storage. The processing of semi-finished products should be piled up neatly. At present, there are no relevant energy storage facilities, so the phenomenon of wind, water and light abandonment is very serious. In 2016 alone, 150billion watt hours of electric energy was wasted in this field, equivalent to the power demand of 100million electric vehicles. It should be said that the energy storage function of electric vehicles is the fundamental way to solve the gap of renewable energy

ouyangminggao said that although there are various energy storage methods, the ultimate way out for energy storage still depends on lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles in terms of scale and cost

in order to achieve this goal, it is inevitable to develop V2G technology. Through this technology, electric vehicles can be charged in both directions with electricity. Electricity can charge electric vehicles. When electric vehicles are not running, they are hung on the electricity as electric energy storage devices

it is worth noting that, as the leader of new energy vehicles in China, BYD has made some explorations and achieved good results. The exchange fast charging pile independently developed by BYD has this function

according to the latest prediction of the roadmap for energy saving and new energy technologies issued by the China Association of automotive engineers, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 40% of the total vehicle sales in 2030. Ouyangminggao is very optimistic about the future of China's new energy vehicle industry. "In 2030, the global sales of new energy vehicles will account for an average of 30%. It is believed that China can achieve a 40% market share."

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