The power generation scale of the hottest renewabl

2022-08-02
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The scale of renewable energy power generation continues to expand until 2020 to fundamentally solve the consumption problem

Abstract: statistics show that in the first half of the year, the installed capacity of renewable energy power generation in China reached 680million kW, an increase of 13% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of hydropower is 340million kW, that of wind power is more than 170million kW, that of photovoltaic power generation is more than 150million kW, and that of biomass power generation is 16.34 million KW. In the first half of the year, China's abandoned wind power was 18.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3 billion kwh, and the abandoned wind rate was 8.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 5 percentage points; The amount of light discarded was 3billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 700million kwh, and the light rejection rate was 3.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2 percentage points

in the first half of this year, the National Energy Administration intensified efforts to improve the consumption of clean energy, strengthened the construction and operation supervision of renewable energy power, and orderly promoted the construction of major renewable energy projects. The scale of renewable energy power generation continued to expand, and the consumption situation of wind power and photovoltaic power generation continued to improve. It realized the direct connection between the abandoned power and the abandoned motor, and the "double drop" of power rate with the rotation of the lead screw of the motor

statistics show that in the first half of the year, China's installed capacity of renewable energy power generation reached 680million kW, a year-on-year increase of 13%. Among them, the installed capacity of hydropower is 340million kW, that of wind power is more than 170million kW, that of photovoltaic power generation is more than 150million kW, and that of biomass power generation is 16.34 million KW

in the first half of the year, the national abandoned wind power was 18.2 billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 5.3 billion kwh, and the abandoned wind rate was 8.7%, a year-on-year decrease of 5 percentage points; The amount of light discarded was 3billion kwh, a year-on-year decrease of 700million kwh, and the light rejection rate was 3.6%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2 percentage points. There are 18 provinces without wind curtailment, and only Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Gansu and Xinjiang have wind curtailment rate of more than 5%; There are 22 provinces without power curtailment, and only Gansu, Xinjiang and Shaanxi provinces (autonomous regions) have a light curtailment rate of more than 5%

in the first half of the year, the national wind power capacity increased by more than 7.5 million KW, a year-on-year increase of about 30%. The national wind power generation capacity was 191.7 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%; The average utilization hours were 1143 hours, an increase of 159 hours year-on-year

fundamentally solve the consumption problem by 2020

in the past few years, the power capacity has been tested very quickly and easily, and the power supply and power development speed do not match, which has caused the power restriction situation to become more and more intense, becoming the biggest bottleneck hindering the healthy development of China's renewable energy. In 2017, China abandoned 55billion kwh of water, 41.9 billion kwh of wind and 7.3 billion kwh of light, with a total of more than 100billion kwh

facing the problem of power restriction, wind power investors have become more rational, slowed down their pace, and began to focus on the development of scale and speed to the development of quality and efficiency. In 2017, the wind power capacity increased by 15 GW, the lowest in nearly five years. It is expected that in the next three years, China's wind power market will maintain rational scale growth, with an average annual increase of about 15-18 GW of onshore wind power and about 1 GW of offshore wind power, taking into account the incremental scale and stock benefits

the national energy administration proposed that the wind and light rejection rates in the "Three North" areas should be controlled within 5% in 2020, and other areas should basically achieve no power restriction. In january2017, Guodian held a press conference, which clearly proposed to strive to effectively alleviate the contradiction between wind and light abandonment from 2017 to 2018, fundamentally solve the problem of new energy consumption by 2020, control the wind and light abandonment rate within 5%, and put forward 20 specific measures to promote new energy consumption

thanks to the continuous progress of equipment manufacturing technology, the cost of photovoltaic projects has decreased by 90% in the past 10 years. Photovoltaic power prices are also declining year by year. Since this year, centralized photovoltaic has been reduced to 0.50 yuan/kW to 0.70 yuan/kWh, and distributed photovoltaic is 0.32 yuan/kWh. In March this year, the difference between the lowest bid price of the eight projects of the third batch of photovoltaic leader bases and the local desulfurization coal-fired benchmark price was only 3.6 points/kilowatt hour to 12.5 points/kilowatt hour. Compared with PV, the development cost of wind power does not decline so fast, and the realization of parity of wind power will go through a relatively slow process

in the next two to three years, China will usher in a period of great development of offshore wind power, and the development process will be significantly accelerated. At present, several coastal provinces have announced the "13th five year plan" for offshore wind power development. Among them, Jiangsu Province plans to put into operation 3.5 GW of offshore wind power by 2020; Fujian Province plans to build 13.3 GW of offshore wind power and put into operation 2 GW in 2020; Guangdong Province plans to start construction of 12 GW of offshore wind power by 2020 and put into operation more than 2 GW. By the end of 2020, China's offshore wind power installed capacity is expected to exceed 5 GW

at present, the "Three North" areas with severe power restriction will usher in a more rational and healthy development environment with the gradual improvement of the power market. More than ten trans regional UHV transmission projects planned to be constructed have been intensively put into operation in recent years, providing technical conditions for trans regional wind power consumption. After the formal implementation of the quota system, cross regional power transmission will become the main way to absorb wind power in the "Three North" region. By 2020, the situation of wind power abandonment and power limitation will be greatly improved. The large blade unit technology will break the traditional IEC wind farm classification standard, and improve the unit load by optimizing the control strategy. The large blade unit can also be applied in the "Three North" high wind speed areas, and the economic benefits of the current wind power project will be more considerable. It can be predicted that from 2020 to 2025, with land resources, environmental protection, the improvement of the power limitation environment in the north and other factors, the main battlefield of China's wind power development will return from the central, Eastern and southern regions to the "Three North" regions

in the future, the central government will have stricter requirements on the ecological environment protection of the project. At the same time, the administrative examination and approval of the environmental protection acceptance of the project will be changed to the acceptance of the project legal entity by itself and accept social supervision. The owner will bear greater environmental risks and laws. In order to reduce their own development risks, developers will also pay more attention to the environmental protection and vegetation restoration of the project, so as to realize the coordinated growth of enterprise benefits and environmental benefits

renewable energy quota faces major problems

although the prospects of photovoltaic and wind power in renewable energy are good, they also face many problems

as early as the end of June this year, the National Energy Administration planned to publicly publish the second draft of the quota system, but was forced to cancel it. The reason for the cancellation is that the new content on the subsidy intensity of renewable energy in the second version of the exposure draft has aroused a great response in the industry

in the second version of the original plan, it is required to combine the mandatory quota of renewable energy with the green certificate, and set the minimum guaranteed utilization hours of wind power and photovoltaic power by province. Within the guaranteed utilization hours, the National Renewable Energy Fund will give full subsidies, and the power generation beyond the guaranteed utilization hours will no longer receive subsidy support, but the power generation enterprises can obtain the green certificate and sell it to obtain incremental income, However, the amount shall not exceed the original subsidy amount

this new regulation means that the subsidies that can be obtained for the power generation capacity of new energy enterprises, in addition to the guaranteed utilization hours, can only be obtained by selling green certificates, and the upper limit does not exceed the original amount of subsidies. Therefore, as an external guarantee for profit, a large number of universities and scientific research institutions, including Ningbo University, Ningbo Institute of materials technology and engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and Northern Institute of materials science and engineering, will share their profits, which will be greatly damaged and face the problem of difficult realization

since the implementation of the green certificate system for more than a year, according to the data of China green power certificate subscription trading platform, as of September 19, 2018, a total of 2034 subscribers have subscribed for 29766 green certificates. At first glance, there is not much data, but in fact it is not optimistic

at present, the cumulative number of PV listings on the green card subscription platform is 238854, the cumulative trading volume is only 151, and the transaction rate is 6.3 per 10000; The cumulative wind power listing volume is, and the cumulative trading volume is 29615, with a transaction rate of 6.1 per thousand. The turnover rate is very low

quota making is a way to alleviate and replace the state's renewable energy subsidies, which is combined with the green card system. The tragedy of green card trading indirectly reflects the biggest problem faced by the renewable energy quota system at present, that is, the market recognition is low and the income is difficult to guarantee. At present, the stability and power generation cost of renewable energy, especially photovoltaic and wind power, are inferior to coal power. Even if quotas are imposed, it is difficult to guarantee the utilization rate and consumption rate

in addition, as the trading volume of wind power green card has reached 196 times that of photoelectric green card, social capital will tilt from the photovoltaic industry to the wind power industry. For these practical problems, the new quota system should also have corresponding rules to prevent the unbalanced development of the renewable energy structure

the purpose and focus of the quota system issued on September 18 will still be on the consumption of renewable energy, and with the cooperation of the green card trading system, some subsidies of renewable energy funds may be appropriately increased. However, it is still difficult to solve the operational difficulties faced by renewable energy enterprises in reality by increasing appropriate subsidies that are difficult to receive and have the risk of default. Therefore, the mandatory proportion, realizable ways and stable income guarantee of the quota system are also the details that the quota system should be strictly defined and stipulated

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