The new energy industry is facing policy "cooling"
the recently hyped new energy industry may be at the time of "cooling". Recently, the national development and Reform Commission updated the catalogue of encouraged imported technologies and products, in which "design and manufacturing technology of wind power generation equipment with a capacity of more than 2 MW" and "polysilicon", the most important raw material of solar photovoltaic power generation modules, have been deleted from the catalogue. In addition, "manufacturing of wind power equipment above 2 MW" has also been deleted from "key industries that encourage development"
the fan capacity is large and the electric field cannot be installed.
◆ real time experimental curve analysis this move was immediately interpreted by market participants as "pouring cold water" on some new energy industries that are suspected of overheating, which mainly produce colorants and additives
the installed capacity of wind power in China has doubled continuously in the past five years. By the end of 2008, the cumulative installed capacity was about 12.153 million KW, much ahead of the "renewable energy medium and long term development plan". The original target for wind power development in the "renewable energy medium and long term development plan" was that the total installed capacity of wind power in China would reach 30million kW by 2020, but now this goal may be achieved in 2011. At present, China has become the fourth largest wind power market in the world, but recently, some local governments and related enterprises have "raced around" in the field of wind power, paying only attention to the installed capacity and ignoring the power generation, resulting in the blind expansion of wind power production capacity
in addition, domestic fan production capacity may also be surplus. Statistics show that there were only 6 domestic enterprises engaged in the production of complete wind turbines in 2004, and more than 70 by the end of 2008. Although only about 20 manufacturers have mature products offline, most newly entered enterprises are already in the construction or product testing stage. According to the investment scale, the wind turbine capacity of these enterprises can reach 35-40 million KW per year, but according to the construction speed of domestic wind farms, it can only meet the market demand of annual installed capacity of 10-15 million KW
reduce imports and encourage independent research and development
Shi Pengfei, vice president of the China Wind Energy Association, said that the revision of the 2007 catalogue was also to develop independent technology and achieve "import substitution" as soon as possible. It is reported that the original catalogue was formulated based on the situation in 2006. At that time, domestic wind turbine manufacturers could only manufacture 1.5 MW units at most. However, the domestic wind power industry has developed rapidly in the past two years. Major manufacturers have the ability to produce 2 MW or higher wind turbines, so it is inappropriate to encourage imports
and "polysilicon" was deleted from the catalogue of "resource products that are encouraged to be imported, and raw materials that can test the friction coefficient friction coefficient tester have been developed because of their high sensor accuracy (some up to 3% of 100000)", also because the polysilicon industry "has a high fever and is difficult to retreat". Statistics show that as of the first half of 2009, nearly 50 companies in more than 20 provinces were building, expanding and preparing polycrystalline silicon production lines at the center [lase, easl], with a total output of more than 170000 tons and a total investment of more than 100billion yuan. If all of them were put into operation, they would be equivalent to more than twice the annual global demand for polycrystalline silicon. In addition, the manufacturing capacity of batteries and battery components downstream of polysilicon in China has been surplus, so there is no need to import too many overseas polysilicon raw materials, and further independent research and development should be encouraged. Obviously, this is also an important reason why polysilicon import is no longer encouraged in the adjustment of the catalogue
avoid the emergence of a "green foam"
the two major industries of wind power and photovoltaic in the field of new energy are currently being popular in the economic community, and the performance of stocks that have touched on them in the past six months is extremely eye-catching. However, Chinese people always like to rush to do things. Some analysts pointed out that this change in the catalogue clearly reflects the policy level's concern about the emergence of a "green foam" in the new energy industry, so the cooling and early warning should be carried out in advance. After all, if we repeat the old path of overcapacity and repeated construction in traditional industries at one step, it is likely that there will be a lot of later disadvantages, which will not only fail to realize the upgrading of industrial structure, but also ruin the future of such "sunrise industries"